Sustainable intensification of agriculture for human prosperity and global sustainability.

There is an ongoing debate on what constitutes sustainable intensification of agriculture (SIA). In this paper, we propose that a paradigm for sustainable intensification can be defined and translated into an operational framework for agricultural development. We argue that this paradigm must now be defined-at all scales-in the context of rapidly rising global environmental changes in the Anthropocene, while focusing on eradicating poverty and hunger and contributing to human wellbeing. The criteria and approach we propose, for a paradigm shift towards sustainable intensification of agriculture, integrates the dual and interdependent goals of using sustainable practices to meet rising human needs while contributing to resilience and sustainability of landscapes, the biosphere, and the Earth system. Both of these, in turn, are required to sustain the future viability of agriculture. This paradigm shift aims at repositioning world agriculture from its current role as the world's single largest driver of global environmental change, to becoming a key contributor of a global transition to a sustainable world within a safe operating space on Earth.

The water productivity score (WPS) at global and regional level: Methodology and first results from remote sensing measurements of wheat, rice and maize.

Scarce water resources are one of the major constraints to achieve more food production. Food production needs therefore also to be evaluated in terms of water consumption, besides the conventional unit of land. Crop Water Productivity (CWP) is defined as the crop yield per unit of water evaporated. Contrary to crop yield, local benchmark values for CWP do not exist. This paper shows how operational earth observation satellites can measure CWP indirectly on a pixel-by-pixel basis, which provides an opportunity to define local, regional and global benchmark values. In analogy to a grading system for earthquakes (Richter) or wind force (Beaufort), a grading system for CWP is introduced: the Water Productivity Score (WPS). A regional scale WPS and a global version - Global Water Productivity Score (GWPS) - are presented. Crop yield zones are used to reflect local production potential, which reflects also the presence of irrigation systems besides general physio-graphical conditions. The 99th percentiles of climatic normalized CWP values at global scale are 2.45, 2.3 and 4.9kgm-3 for wheat, rice and maize respectively. There is significant scope to produce the same - or more - food from less water resources, provided that locally specific best on-farm practices are implemented. At the upstream level, Governments can use (G)WPS to define national water and food policies and use it as a means to report to the Sustainable Development Goal standards. At the downstream level, WPS helps to improve on-farm water management practices by growers, both for rainfed and irrigated crops. While the current paper is based on wheat, rice and maize, the same framework can be expanded to potatoes, sugarbeet, sugarcane, fruit trees, cotton and other crops.

Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth: many models are better than one.

Crop models of crop growth are increasingly used to quantify the impact of global changes due to climate or crop management. Therefore, accuracy of simulation results is a major concern. Studies with ensembles of crop models can give valuable information about model accuracy and uncertainty, but such studies are difficult to organize and have only recently begun. We report on the largest ensemble study to date, of 27 wheat models tested in four contrasting locations for their accuracy in simulating multiple crop growth and yield variables. The relative error averaged over models was 24-38% for the different end-of-season variables including grain yield (GY) and grain protein concentration (GPC). There was little relation between error of a model for GY or GPC and error for in-season variables. Thus, most models did not arrive at accurate simulations of GY and GPC by accurately simulating preceding growth dynamics. Ensemble simulations, taking either the mean (e-mean) or median (e-median) of simulated values, gave better estimates than any individual model when all variables were considered. Compared to individual models, e-median ranked first in simulating measured GY and third in GPC. The error of e-mean and e-median declined with an increasing number of ensemble members, with little decrease beyond 10 models. We conclude that multimodel ensembles can be used to create new estimators with improved accuracy and consistency in simulating growth dynamics. We argue that these results are applicable to other crop species, and hypothesize that they apply more generally to ecological system models.

Strategies to increase the yield and yield stability of crops under drought - are we making progress?

The objective of the InterDrought conferences is to be a platform for debating key issues that are relevant for increasing the yield and yield stability of crops under drought via integrated approaches. InterDrought-IV, held in Perth, Australia, in September 2013, followed previous InterDrought conferences in bringing together researchers in agronomy, soil science, modelling, physiology, biochemistry, molecular biology, genetics and plant breeding. Key themes were (i) maximising water productivity; (ii) maximising dryland crop production; (iii) adaptation to water-limited environments; (iv) plant productivity under drought through effective water capture, improved transpiration efficiency, and growth and yield; and (v) breeding for water-limited environments through variety development, and trait-based genomics-assisted and transgenic approaches. This paper highlights some key issues and presents recommendations for future action. Improved agronomic interventions were recognised as being important contributors to improved dryland crop yields in water-limited environments, and new methods for exploring root architecture and water capture were highlighted. The increase in crop yields under drought through breeding and selection, the development of high-throughput phenotyping facilities for field-grown and pot-grown plants, and advances in understanding the molecular basis of plant responses and resistance to drought stress were recognised. Managed environment phenotyping facilities, a range of field environments, modelling, and genomic molecular tools are being used to select and release drought-resistant cultivars of all major crops. Delegates discussed how individuals and small teams can contribute to progress, and concluded that interdisciplinary research, linkages to international agricultural research centres, public-private partnerships and continuation of the InterDrought conferences will be instrumental for progress.